Notable events that have occurred on the date of August 4th throughout history:
-1892: Lizzie Borden’s family found murdered
-1914: Germany invades Belgium, the UK declares war on Germany.
-1944: Anne Frank and family discovered by Gestapo.
-1993: Stacey Koon and Laurence Powell sentenced to 30 months in prison for Rodney King beating.
And, last but not least:
-2005: Felix Hernandez makes his MLB debut against the Detroit Tigers, pitching five innings, with four strikeouts, two walks, three hits, two runs (one earned), and earns a loss in the first decision of his career.
August 2005, a more innocent time, when Mariah Carey’s “We Belong Together” was topping the charts, President Bush was endorsing intelligent design, Peter Jennings was just about to pass away, and the Seattle Mariners were…well, just as crappy as they are this year, actually, fourth in the AL West division. But the light at the end of the tunnel for that miserable Mariner season was Felix Hernandez, their 19-year-old phenom pitching prospect. King Felix, as he is popularly known, had been drawing raves for his potential for several years to that point. He was said to throw a high-90s fastball, a knee-buckling curve, a decent change-up, and a slider so devastating that it drew raves even without anybody ever having seen him throw it. (Allegedly, the Mariners disallowed use of the pitch, for fear it would irreparably damage his young arm.)
If not the best pitching prospect ever (that title would probably go to Dwight Gooden), Felix was certainly in a group with Kerry Wood, Josh Beckett, Mark Prior and Rick Ankiel as one of the most talented and promising young hurlers of the past decade. He did nothing to belie the massive expectations on his young shoulders by posting a sub-1 WHIP in his 84.3 innings that year, striking out 77 batters and displaying a repertoire not seen since the likes of Pedro Martinez in his prime.
With that first half-season under his belt, everybody expected big things from Felix in 2006, and…well, he was pretty much an average pitcher (which, for a 20 year old, is still rather impressive). He pitched 191 innings in his 31 starts (and could’ve pitched more, though the Mariners wisely placed a strict innings cap on Felix in order to prevent injury or overuse), posted a 176-to-60 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and allowed 23 homers. His ERA was just slightly below league average (a 98 ERA+, which is actually average for a starting pitcher). His WHIP was a mundane 1.34. Well, not everybody can do what Dwight Gooden did when he was 20 (win a Cy Young Award unanimously, lead the league in strikeouts, win 24 games, post a 1.53 ERA, etc.), so there was no reaFeson to be down on Felix – most pitchers aren’t even in AA at that age. (The minor league, not the alcoholic rehab organization.)
The next year, Felix started things off with a bang, striking out 12 Oakland A’s in 8 innings of work, and the buzz started to grow again. This was going to be the year that Felix finally broke out and went all Bob Gibson/Greg Maddux/Pedro on the league, putting up a sub-2 ERA and striking out batters as casually as Randy Johnson against minor league batters.
In his next start, on national TV by way of ESPN, Felix threw a one-hitter against the Red Sox in Fenway Park, striking out six batters and generally making the Sox lineup look stupid. I remember watching that game live, and laughing and gasping and how good Felix’s stuff was. There were several pitches that I was simply in awe at, not just that a 20-year old was throwing them, but that such movement on a baseball was even physically possible. 92-MPH two-seam fastballs that broke six inches right, curves in the low-80s that dropped over a foot, 98-MPH four-seamers exploding into the top of the strike zone…it was like watching Roger Clemens throw a Wiffle ball.
Felix throws a pitch during his one-hit shutout of the Red Sox.
What did his season turn out like? Pretty much just like the season before it. His 110 ERA+ represented a jump forward, but his other numbers were more or less the same: a 1.38 WHIP, 190.3 innings pitched, 165 strikeouts to 53 walks, 20 homers allowed. Bummer, but again, he was still a mere 21 years old, and though his numbers weren’t starkly different, they were a slight bit better.
With the 2008 season just about over, here’s what Felix’s numbers look like so far: 175.3 innings, 130 ERA+, 157 strikeouts to 68 walks, 15 homers, 1.33 WHIP. Again, not a whole lot different from the previous two seasons. What’s the deal?
His strikeout and walk numbers haven’t been much different on a season-by-season basis, though they haven’t improved, which you’d expect from a pitcher with stuff as good as Felix as he learns to pitch more effectively. He’s been cutting his homers down, which is very nice, and is the most obvious reason that his ERA+ has gone from average to above-average to well above-average this season.
Last season, David Cameron over on the excellent USS Mariner wrote an open letter to the Mariners pitching coach, observing that Felix was doing a rather poor job of mixing his pitches up, and as a result, hitters were able to see what was coming and tee off. A few weeks later, Felix cryptically referred to “the internet” noticing that he wasn’t mixing his pitches well, and that he had tried to mix in all his pitches earlier as a result. It would provide a nice explanation as to why a pitcher with such nasty stuff isn’t yet the superstar you’d expect – he is, after all, only 22 years old, and still learning to pitch with each passing year. With as young as he is, the Mariners have also been wise to limit his pitches, and Felix may be limited by his inability to go all out on hitters, since he is facing rather strict pitch count and inning caps and must conserve energy in order to pitch for as long into each start as possible.
Still, you have to wonder, when will he finally put it all together? Tim Lincecum over in the NL, in just his second season, is leading MLB in strikeouts and looks to be the favorite for the Cy Young Award. Chad Billingsley is second in the NL behind Lincecum in strikeouts and has a better ERA and ERA+ than Felix as well. While both of these pitchers are supremely talented, neither has the stuff or the accumulated major league experience of Felix (though they do have an age advantage).
Different players mature at different rates – not every primo prospect is going to storm out of the gates, gun blazing. It would be wise to give Felix more time – after all, his ERA has improved every single year, and he’s still only 22 years old. Greg Maddux didn’t go nuts on the NL until he was 26 years old. Pedro, 25. Hell, it took RJ until he was nearly 30! I imagine it won’t be too many more years until Felix is regularly campaigning for the Cy Young Award. I look forward to it.
